The Upshot on Today’s Polls
NATIONAL POLLING. Polls shown below track voters’ views nationwide on the presidential election between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe dattiktok.com are only displayed. In the presidential election, President Trump and Vice President Pence will likely face a slew of Democratic candidates vying for the chance to challenge their bid for a second term.
By Nate Cohn. These will spring to what is the value of a signed baseball around 7 p. Read more about the needle here. Main results page Maps! Lots of maps. Presidential vote tracker Vote counting in several presidential battleground states could take days.
Here we will show the estimated uncounted electikn according to turnout estimates by Edison Research, our provider for presidential results, and modeled estimates for the partisan makeup of remaining votes by The Upshot. When to expect results in all 50 states.
Senate results. Live updates from our reporters. House results. Exit polls. This year, the rise of mail voting will make election night much harder to follow. Ars most states, the results will be heavily skewed at various points of the night, depending on when a qhat counts mail ballots, in-person early voting or Election Day voting. In other words, the results could be very misleading. And in some states, the count might take days.
Over at The Upshotwe offer some tips for watching and currenh hour-by-hour guide. The how to do a turn in dance polls more or less comport with how we already viewed the race.
Biden ends the race up by more than eight points nationwide — the largest lead a candidate has held in the final polls since Bill Clinton in But maybe a bit better for Trump?
Most of these surveys were a little better for the president than previous ones. Trump has been closing a bit on Mr. And if you look carefully, Mr. Biden has been holding on to 52 percent of the vote in the polls, while Mr. Trump has gradually pulled himself up from 42 to 43, now edging to 44 percent, according to our average. Trump still needs something more than As I wrote this morning, he still needs a bigger polling miss than in While Mr.
Biden would win a clear national and Electoral College victory if the polls were as wrong as they were inthe race would still be fairly competitive, in a certain sense. Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida and Georgia would all be decided by about a point or less.
If the polls were off by a bit more, Mr. Trump would claim the what is a bsb number commonwealth bank of victories in the Electoral College, despite a significant deficit in the national vote. Electoral College edge. The real reason Mr. Trump still has an outside shot is simple: As in the final tallies of eleection, he still has a relative advantage in what are the current presidential election polls states likeliest to decide the election compared with the nation as a whole.
If you go down the list of states from best to worst for Mr. If Pennsylvania were Biden plus-8, like Michigan or the nation, it would be really hard to see a path for the president. We did get a couple of polls out of Pennsylvania today, including a Monmouth survey showing Mr.
Biden up by seven points in a high-turnout scenario. Like other recent Pennsylvania polls, this one shows him well ahead but also losing quite a bit of ground from a prior survey.
The Marist poll, which showed Mr. Biden up just five points, shows a similar trend line. It leaves Mr. Biden with a five-point lead in our average in the most critical state. If Mr. Biden loses in Pennsylvania, his best backup plan is Arizona.
And this is probably the state where Mr. Biden up by one point and tied. Someone asked whether I thought this hinted at a late shift here, and I think I doubt it. Either way, it brings his lead in the state down to three points, by our estimate. He leads by more than two points in our average, after leading by at least four points in polls by Ipsos, Morning Consult and Quinnipiac. I get it: Florida has disappointed Democrats quite a few times over the years, including in the midterms.
Trump might do what are some things to put on a bucket list than he did last time.
The state what are the current presidential election polls very diverse, but in particular its subgroups are diverse. The white noncollege vote includes a true slice of the Deep South in the Panhandle, and a bunch of Northern retirees. This kind of heterogeneity creates challenges for pollsters. Usually, pollsters make up how to have more followers on twitter having too few respondents by weighting, giving more weight to the respondents you did get from a certain demographic group.
But in this case, giving more weight to the Hispanic voters you did reach — say, Puerto Ricans — or the white working-class voters you did reach — Northern retirees — might make things worse. But despite all of those challenges, Mr.
Those with a long memory might even recall that the polls underestimated Barack Obama inwho won despite trailing in most of the prdsidential polls. Biden wins Florida, the election is all but over. The polls close at 7 p. All the details are over at The Upshotwhere my colleagues and I go over our decisions.
The polls show Joe Biden with a far more significant lead than the one curremt by Hillary Clinton, and many of the likeliest explanations for the polling misfire do not appear to be in play today. Over at The UpshotI go into the ways the polls are different today than they were inand what sort of polling error Mr. Trump would need to win at this point. A big one. A running table of all the presidential polls released today, with newest entries first:.
Another 20 polls today, another 20 polls without signs of gains for the president. This morning, a big wave of polls showed Joe Biden with eelection clear lead. Nearly all of these were sponsored by major media organizations and conducted via qhat phone interviews. If you want to check out what we had to say about them, you can scroll down a bit farther on the page. This afternoon, we got a big wave of polls showing a very similar result, but by very different means.
Nearly all were conducted online or by automated phone calls. These polls differ from the live phone polls in several respects. If there really are shy Trump supporters, this is where you would think they would finally feel free to speak out.
Less obviously: The online and automated firms usually take different strategies for ironing out bias, like weighting on party identification what does iyt stand for on whether respondents said they voted for President Trump or Hillary Clinton in Biden seems to hold a wha lead, no matter the methodology.
The Trump pollsters are all alone. There are some polls showing Mr. These are also automated or partly online surveys. The Susquehanna and Insider Advantage polls are sponsored by the Center for American Greatness, which has a website that leads with an article comparing this election and Rasmussen and Trafalgar will undoubtedly presidentila familiar to most anyone reading this page.
For the uninitiated: These results are no elevtion. It is still possible that Mr. Trump will ultimately win this election. If he does, some of these pollsters will probably say it vindicates their methodology. But take note: Even these polls show Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump essentially tied in Florida, with Mr.
Biden leading in Michigan, and with the president underperforming his standing from four years ago. If the tie went Mr. The final polls are beginning to arrive. No sign of a shift. If you squint, you could argue Mr. We already knew that the polls were somewhat tighter this past week than they were in early October, yhe the president was at his nadir. You can see that for yourself by looking at our poll average charts. Biden ahead in Pennsylvania. So far, they tell a clear story: Mr.
This page displays the current toWin Polling Average for each state. Where that is not applicable, the most recent presidential election poll is used. The average methodology is summarized below the table. Use the sort to view the polls in different ways. Select a state name to see its presidential . Election Presidential Polls. Select one or more years, states and race types, then click "Apply Filter" to see results. The French presidential election was held on 23 April and 7 May As no candidate won a majority in the first round, a runoff was held between the top two candidates, Emmanuel Macron of En Marche! (EM) and Marine Le Pen of the National Front (FN), which Macron won by a decisive margin. The presidential election was followed by a legislative election to elect members of the National.
Hamid Karzai Independent. Presidential elections were held in Afghanistan on 20 August The election was characterized by lack of security, low voter turnout and low awareness of the people about the election and election process and widespread ballot stuffing, intimidation, and other electoral fraud.
The election was the second under the present constitution of Afghanistan and was held on the same day as elections for 34 provincial council seats. The Taliban called for a boycott of the election, describing it as a " program of the crusaders " and " this American process ". Under the constitution , elections should have been held no later than 60 days before the end of President Karzai's term in July The Independent Election Commission IEC originally recommended that the poll be held at the same time as the parliamentary balloting to save costs.
However, politicians in the country were unable to agree to the details. The opposition accused Karzai of attempting to extend his power past his term. In February , President Hamid Karzai called on the Independent Election Committee to hold the election according to the country's constitution,      thereby forcing the IEC to reiterate the August date, and silencing critics, who feared a leadership vacuum between May and August.
The election date of August 20, was one day after the Afghan anniversary of the formal end of Britain's third attempt to conquer Afghanistan ninety years ago in Forty-four candidates had registered for the presidential election when the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan IEC announced its official preliminary list of registered candidates on May 17, Three candidates withdrew from the race before the election took place, having thrown their support behind one of the top two contenders.
Each presidential candidate ran with two vice-presidential candidates. Karzai filed his candidacy on May 4, ; he retained incumbent second Vice President Karim Khalili , who is from the Hazara ethnic group but exchanged the first Vice President Ahmad Zia Massood for Mohammad Qasim Fahim , a Tajik former warlord blamed by human rights groups for mass civilian deaths during the Afghan Civil War.
The United National Front announced on April 16, that they would nominate former foreign minister Dr. Abdullah Abdullah as their presidential candidate. Abdullah was foreign minister of the Northern Alliance from onwards, and was a dominant figure in the Alliance. He was appointed foreign minister in the interim government that was installed after the U. The first person to have declared his intention to run, Dr. Ramazan Bashardost formally registered for the presidential election on May 7, , with vice-presidential candidates Mr.
Afifa Maroof, a member of the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission, and with a dove, a symbol of peace and liberty, as their campaign symbol. Bashardost openly criticized the government and accused ministers of corruption. While serving as the planning minister, he was critical of foreign organizations in Afghanistan eating up aid money meant for the Afghan people and later resigned under government and foreign pressure.
At a time when many Afghans would have preferred to lessen the appearance of ties to the U. His close ties to Washington placed him among those that Afghans considered to be " Zana-e-Bush ", literally "Bush's wives".
Ashraf Ghani was also reported as the candidate most favoured by the U. He was previously a member of the Emergency Loya Jirga convened in , served as deputy of the Loya Jirga , and director of counter narcotics and deputy minister of counter narcotics. Shahla Atta , a liberal female MP and war widow also stood, pledging to revive the modernizing policies of — president Mohammad Daoud Khan. Along with the presidential candidates, were candidates for provincial council positions.
A Provincial Council in each of Afghanistan's 34 provinces advises and works with the provincial administration, headed by a Governor that is appointed by the President. According to human rights groups, at least 70 candidates with links to "illegal armed groups" were on the ballot list in the election. While the electoral law disallowed candidates with links to "illegal armed groups", and the Karzai-appointed Independent Election Commission had barred 56 other candidates that it identified as being commanders or members of illegal militias, many of the bigger warlords , including current parliamentarians and provincial council members elected in and , simply bypassed this by registering their militias as private security companies or by having the right political connections.
Both of Hamid Karzai's vice-presidential candidates and many of his key allies in the election are alleged to have committed widespread human rights violations and war crimes.
Human Rights Watch has called for Vice President Karim Khalili and key ally, former army chief of staff General Abdul Rashid Dostum , to face trial before a special court for alleged war crimes. Khalili is alleged to have been responsible in the killing of thousands of innocent people. Karzai's other vice-presidential candidate and former senior security advisor Mohammad Qasim Fahim , along with Karzai backer and former energy minister Ismail Khan , have also been listed by the human rights group as among the "worst perpetrators.
Fahim, a key U. Karzai is also being advised by Abdul Rasul Sayyaf , who is said to have first invited Osama bin Laden to Afghanistan and has lobbied for an amnesty for warlords. Most prominently covered was the dramatic return, three days before the election, of General Abdul Rashid Dostum from exile in Turkey as part of a deal to help bring President Karzai to victory.
After allegedly kidnapping and beating up a political rival , he was removed as Karzai's army chief of staff in late and disappeared into exile in Turkey. A key U. He is also alleged to have crushed one of his own soldiers to death by tying him to the tracks of a tank. Many Afghans hate these powerbrokers in the Afghan government, angered that they evaded accountability for their human rights abuses in the nineties and regained power and land through private militias funded by the millions of dollars they were paid by the CIA in the U.
Analysts have suggested that part of Karzai's strategy was to make deals with warlord allies to deliver large blocs of votes in return for key positions and influence in his new government or other significant promises. In the immediate aftermath of the election, analysts and diplomats suggested that Karzai's alliances with strongmen like General Dostum had paid off, delivering him large numbers of votes in the north. Karzai's vice-presidential candidate, Marshal Muhammad Qasim Fahim , is also alleged to have long ties to drug trafficking, according to CIA reports from as early as A crucial U.
He was then appointed First Vice President and Minister of Defense in the interim and transitional governments installed after the invasion, handling more millions of dollars sent by the U. CIA intelligence reports in showed that Fahim had a history of narcotics trafficking before the U. Hamid Karzai's election campaign manager for the south, and half-brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai — himself a candidate for re-election as the head of the Kandahar provincial council — has also long been alleged to have prominent drug trafficking ties, and was thought to control a significant proportion of Afghan heroin production.
Only a week before the election he denied a report from German news magazine Stern that said that British special forces had found several tons of opium on his land. He claimed that this was being done just before the election to hurt Hamid Karzai's chance of re-election. According to current and former U. A UN election monitoring report said in early August that there was mounting evidence that the government was using state resources to favour Karzai. Issues at the forefront in the election campaign were the insurgency and lack of security , the conduct of foreign troops in Afghanistan and civilian casualties , corruption , and poverty.
Topics concerning women's rights were virtually never featured in news coverage of the electoral campaign, and women received almost no coverage in news reporting during the election, according to a European Union observation mission report. Karzai announced that he would invite the Taliban to a Loya Jirga a grand tribal council to try to restart stalled peace talks. Karzai also said the country was growing in stature and would be able to prevent "foreigners" from jailing Afghans, referring to the foreign military forces operating in their country.
According to Ramazan Bashardost, the insurgency was motivated by the presence of foreign military forces in their country, by the presence of warlords and human rights abusers in the Western-backed regime, by the corruption in that government, and by poverty. Bashardost vowed that he would not allow foreign troops to stay in Afghanistan if elected.
Abdul Salam Rocketi , a former Mujahideen " freedom fighter " — whose name came from using rocket-propelled grenades to shoot down Soviet helicopters — and former Taliban commander, said he would announce an amnesty for all the insurgents if he won the election.
The Election Commission accredited , observers for the election. The Afghan Free and Fair Elections Foundation, the largest local monitoring group, said that it would have observers at 70 per cent of polling stations but couldn't observe the remainder because of security concerns.
Two candidate debates took place before the August 20 election. The first debate was held on July 23 and was broadcast on Tolo TV. It was supposed to feature Karzai, Abdullah, and Ghani, though Karzai later declined to take part, with his campaign blaming Tolo TV for being biased against him. The pre-election polls, funded by the U. Opinions on the following people International Republican Institute, May 3—16, .
The administering of public opinion polls for the presidential election was beset by numerous difficulties because of the lack of security, harsh geography, and lack of accurate demographic data, but analysts hoped that with improved sampling techniques the pre-election polls would be more predictive of the outcome than they were in Despite the surge of 30 thousand additional foreign military troops into Afghanistan in the three to four months leading up to the elections, and major military operations in the weeks and days ahead of the election, 12 out of Afghanistan's 34 provinces remained classified as "high risk" by the Afghan Ministry of Interior — meaning limited or no government presence — casting into doubt the ability of over one-third of the country to participate in the elections.
A week and a half before the election, the Afghan government announced that it had hired 10, tribesmen to provide additional security for the election in almost two-thirds of Afghanistan's provinces. ISAF officials stated two days before the election that the 60,troop ISAF military force in Afghanistan would halt all offensive operations on polling day in order to help Afghan forces maintain security for the presidential election. The order to halt operations and divert forces to help security followed a similar order issued to Afghan forces by Afghan President Hamid Karzai.
Because of the lack of security, the full list of polling centers was only announced on the actual polling day. A day before the election, hundreds of polling stations were ordered closed in parts of the country where military and police forces fear to go and would not be able to provide protection for election monitors. It had previously been estimated that as many as out of 7, polling stations across the country would not open because of the widespread insecurity.
In Kandahar province , the mayor of Kandahar city, Ghulam Haider Hamidi, said that he would not go vote. Already in the month preceding the election day, there was a rise in violent incidents, all over Afghanistan, including a suicide bomber attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul on July 7. In decrees issued two days before the presidential election, the Afghan government imposed censorship for election day, barring news organizations from reporting any information about violence between 6 a.
Low turnout could undermine the credibility of the election — and could also hurt Karzai's results in the election if not enough ethnic Pashtun people , who form his base of support, turned out for the vote in the insurgent-dominated south of Afghanistan.
On the eve of the election, police at the Kabul bank beat journalists and bystanders with rifle butts to keep them away from the scene where the bloody siege had taken place.
The head of the Afghan Independent Journalists' Association AIJA said that the government censorship decrees would not stop Afghan and foreign journalists from providing information to the public during the critical election period: "It shows the weakness of the government and we condemn such moves to deprive people from accessing news.
Human Rights Watch also criticized the news censorship, stating: "An attempt to censor the reporting of violence is an unreasonable violation of press freedoms.
The Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan called the Afghan government's limitation of media freedom on election day "a violation of democratic principles". Afghan government officials reported that 73 incidents of violence had taken place in 15 provinces throughout the country during voting. The Afghan government also reported that at least 26 people were killed in the election day violence, including eight Afghan soldiers, nine police officers and nine civilians.
The government figures were impossible to verify, however, because of the government-imposed ban against reporting any information on violence. Anecdotal evidence suggested that the number of election day attacks could actually be much higher than the government reports.
Another report since has placed the number of attacks on election day in Afghanistan at more than ISAF has since reported that more than militant attacks occurred on election day — making it one of the most violent days in Afghanistan since In one of the worst reported attacks, militants stormed the town of Baghlan in northern Afghanistan, forcing all polling stations there to be closed down, with fighting lasting for most of the day.
The district police chief was among those killed. Rocket attacks, gun battles, and bomb blasts occurred across much of the country, closing scores of polling stations. The province of Kandahar alone was hit by insurgent rockets. Rockets and mortars were launched into Kandahar , the second largest city in the country, Lashkar Gah , the capital of Helmand province, Tirin Kot , the provincial capital of Uruzgan , as well as other cities.
In an unconfirmed report, militants hanged two people in Kandahar because their index fingers were marked with indelible ink, showing that they had participated in the election that militants consider a tool of foreign occupation. In the capital city Kabul , militants took over a building before being killed after a two-hour shootout.
The capital was also reported to have been hit by at least five bomb blasts.